Lando Norris emphatically stamped his name as a championship contender for 2024 at the Dutch GP. Red Bull had no answer for McLaren’s heavily upgraded MCL38 and Max Verstappen settled for P2. With this sudden change in guard, every point counts as Norris eyes his maiden championship after 6 mediocre years with McLaren. The next phase of his hero’s journey lies at the Italian Grand Prix in the quaint city of Monza – the mighty Ferrari’s home ground.

Of late, the Scuderia has been infamous for its inconsistencies in the championship pursuit. But whenever they return to Monza, the humongous fanfare and patriotism unleash a new monster within the team. Historically, Ferrari has been the most successful at the Italian GP, with an unparalleled 20 wins, which is the sum of runner-ups McLaren and Mercedes’ 11 and 9 wins, respectively. With a boatload of storylines going into Round 16 of the 2024 championship, the weather will play a vital role. Let’s dive into that before assessing the teams’ expectations.

Sunny days culminating in rain at the 2024 Italian GP

Monza is referred to as the ‘Temple of Speed’. It was the third motorsport-specific track created in the world in 1922, after Brooklands and Indianapolis. Having held 74 F1 races, only one short of Silverstone, it is a cornerstone of the F1 calendar. When F1 usually visits Italy at this time of the year, it is always sunny. But this time around, there’s a twist.

Friday, August 30: Free Practice 1 and Free Practice 2

As per weather.com, the day temperatures will peak at 34 degrees Celsius and keep cooling before going as low as 22 degrees Celsius in the night. The humidity levels will be high – above 50% in the day and increase to above 60% by nighttime. The blazing sun, coupled with the high humidity, will provide the perfect recipe for a sweaty time for drivers. The only rain here might be what George Russell feels inside his helmet.

Saturday, August 31: Free Practice 3 and Qualifying

The temperatures will be the same as on Friday, but a cloud cover will develop during the day. The humidity levels will maintain the status quo, with the chance of rain slightly increasing in the night. Contrary to the Dutch GP, where winds touched 65 km/h, even the fastest of winds in Monza will remain below 10 km/h throughout the weekend.

Sunday, September 1: Race day

On the big day, temperatures still hover around the 30 degrees Celsius mark, peaking at 33 degrees Celsius. Contrary to the first two days of the race weekend, an outside chance of rain (around 24%) develops. This can only mean one thing. If the umbrellas have to be opened, the pecking order will scramble with McLaren and Red Bull not the only victory challengers.

Ferrari ready to disrupt the Norris-Verstappen championship battle

At the Italian Grand Prix last year, Max Verstappen created history. He won in Monza to take his 10th consecutive F1 victory, shattering Sebastian Vettel & the late Alberto Ascari’s record of 9 consecutive wins. But look at the difference a year makes. He is not even the favorite to take his 3rd Italian GP victory. McLaren has now made Lando Norris the new face of F1 and it is the beginning of the end of Verstappen’s run.

However, when the Tifosi paint the stands red in Monza, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc & Carlos Sainz will be as good as championship contenders. Moreover, the upgrades to their SF24 which they brought to Zandvoort, have come in the nick of time. Red Bull is struggling with front-rear balance and unexpected tire degradation issues. And both drivers of the new dominator, McLaren, also acknowledged Ferrari’s pace at the Dutch GP.

Even on fresher tires, Oscar Piastri couldn’t overtake Charles Leclerc for the podium. “I got stuck in the dirty air behind the Ferrari, who had more pace than we were expecting,” he said post-race. Even Norris was taken aback by their Italian rival’s unforeseen rise in performance. “Ferrari were quite quick today. We probably didn’t expect them to be as good as they were,” he remarked after taking the win in Zandvoort.

To top it all, the men in Scarlet Red have more upgrades coming for their home race. Though Team Principal Frederic Vasseur shut the unnecessary publicity around them being termed ‘favorites’, Fernando Alonso did so anyway. “Looking ahead, Ferrari should be the team to beat in the next two races,” the Aston Martin driver said in Zandvoort, citing Ferrari’s strength at Monza and Singapore last year. But this time, there is more for the Italians than this run-of-the-mill performance chatter.

Monza prepares for two new home heroes for 2025

In F1’s 75-year history, only 2 Italians have won world championships – Nino Farina in 1950, and Alberto Ascari in 1952 and 1953. After that, there were Italian race winners but none of them won the ultimate prize. The last Italian to race in F1 was Antonio Giovinazzi, from 2019 to 2021 for Alfa Romeo (now Stake F1), which was Ferrari’s customer team. Then, Frederic Vasseur was the team boss there before he joined Ferrari in 2023.

Though Giovinazzi continued reserve driver duties for the Scuderia in 2022, there was no Italian racing for points. But after 3 years, there will be one. Mercedes has handed 17-year-old prodigy Andrea Kimi Antonelli his F1 practice debut at the Italian GP. The young Italian is expected to replace Lewis Hamilton in FP1 on his home soil – a dream come true. Even Team Principal Toto Wolff got emotional in Zandvoort when he announced this.

“We’re going to do FP1 with Kimi in Monza, which is going to be a really emotional moment because we’ve followed him since he was 11 and a baby go-kart driver with a Mercedes kit and proud to be in the garage,” Wolff told reporters at the Dutch GP on Sunday.

While this is already a joyous occasion for the home crowd, Lewis Hamilton‘s arrival will mean the world to them. The Ferrari-bound 7x champ was lovingly welcomed in Imola (for the Emilia Romagna GP) earlier this year, and the reception in Monza will be even bigger. Similarly, Carlos Sainz will be given a grand farewell in his last Italian GP with Ferrari before he departs for Williams in 2025.

In a way, there will be 4 ‘home heroes’ at the Italian GP this weekend – Leclerc, Sainz, Hamilton, and his Mercedes successor, Antonelli. What more can the in-person audience ask for? And for those tuning in from their homes, what are your predictions for this weekend? Share in the comments below.